MAGA nation have adamantly trusted Trump's voter fraud claims since election night. Fraud allegations are etched into the psyche of a significant section of the republican voter base. This is on top of continued allegations of widespread corruption, biased media attacks, and a conniving of the deep state Trump has professed through out his time in office. In Georgia this psyche has coalesced into a movement to boycott the upcoming senate runoff elections. These are elections that will decide the congressional makeup, and has created an unwarranted obstacle for candidates Kelly Loeffler and David Perdue. A campaign that would have solely focused on voter excitement is instead tasked with convincing voters to participate in a system they do not believe is legitimate. While this is of immediate importance in Georgia, it may signal what's to come for the Republican party in the not-so-distant future.
The boycott movement has gained traction largely on Twitter and rising conservative branded Twitter alternative, Parler. Boycotters frame both candidates and the Republican party itself, as complicit, or worse, participating in the fraudulent elections themselves. Loeffler and Purdue have actually moved closer to Trump since election day. Both candidates have been vocal in supporting the president’s many frivolous lawsuits and have campaigned on that theme. Nevertheless, the boycott movement has grown leaving Republicans scrambling. The President himself has sought to quell this storm, and redirect the run off campaign. Reacting to boycotters the president tweeted, “No, the 2020 Election was a total scam, we won by a lot (and will hopefully turn over the fraudulent result), but we must get out and help David and Kelly, two GREAT people. Otherwise we are playing right into the hands of some very sick people. I will be in Georgia on Saturday!”
The president and republicans have boxed themselves into a messaging nightmare. On one hand they remain committed to baseless fraud claims, but on the other busy themselves in convincing their base to get out there and give it another go. It remains to see to what extent the boycott movement will affect the runoffs. Considering how close the general election was it wouldn't take much to tank the republican candidates. However in the long run, if historical trends are any indication, doubling down on baseless conspiratorial claims may prove to backfire against the Republican party.
Preliminary polling conducted by Politico/Morning Consult has indicated that nearly 70% of republicans did not believe the 2020 election to be free and fair. Considering 29% of the electorate are registered republicans, this polling would suggest over 31 million Americans have lost faith, to some extent, in the American electoral system. The republican voting base has been fed a constant diet of corruption speculation. From Hunter Biden to Hillary’s emails, from a Washington elite bent on impeding Donald Trump, to the dastardly media who only look to aid the elite, Republicans find corruption under every stone. The inverse is true. Democrats have only seen evidence that reaffirm the election security in the United States. This amounted to over 86% of Democrats trusting the 2020 election.
The research team of Daniel Stockemer, Bernadette LaMontagne and Lyle Scruggs published what might be the most thorough study of the effect of corruption on voter turnout. “Bribes and ballots: The impact of corruption on voter turnout in democracies, (2013)”published in International Political Science Review, Stockmemer et al, sampled the effect of anti-corruption measures across 20 separate nations and the corresponding effect on voter turnout. In this research they concluded, “corruption has a significant and substantially relevant negative impact on voter turnout” and “...citizens could become frustrated with a corrupt political establishment… In such an environment, horizontal relations of reciprocity and cooperation cannot flourish.” If this study’s findings are true, the GOP faces a unique set of self inflicted obstacles to overcome. 2020 has solidified the strong belief among republican voters that corruption and corrupt elections are not only real, but in practice substantially impact our government. The opposite is the case among Democrats. This could lead to an asymmetrical effect in voter turnout. One in which Republicans choose not to participate in what they believe to be a fraudulent system, but Democrats head to the polls en masse in good faith.
To make matters worse for Republicans, it's not only the boycott advocates turning ranks but the president himself. These attacks first targeted republican majority state legislators and red secretaries of state , but now have escalated to direct attacks on Republican Governors. Specifically, Georgian Governor Brian Kemp received ire after certifying the Georgia election results. Similarly traditionally conservative news outlets have taken major hits after Trump’s criticism of their 2020 coverage. This can be seen in recent Fox News ratings. In abiding by Trump’s constant cries of corruption the GOP has made it’s bed. Now with a substantial part of their party believing Trump, they must sleep in it. The GOP chose it king and he now favors his own legacy over Republican electoral success. The damage has already been done. Any Republican success won’t simply hinge on convincing an electorate to vote for their candidates, but to vote at all. Hope of rebuilding that trust dies everyday Trump and his followers perpetuate nonsense corruption claims.
"The president and republicans have boxed themselves into a messaging nightmare." They have indeed. May their shabbily built house of cards collapse in on them.